Author Topic: Asimov's prediction of 2014 made 50 years ago  (Read 3324 times)

Offline BigTed

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Asimov's prediction of 2014 made 50 years ago
« on: August 27, 2013, 01:29:08 PM »
Isaac Asimov was the first science fiction writer I read - best known for the "Foundation" series,  "I Robot", "Bicentennial Man", to name a few.

50 years ago he wrote an article about what 2014 would look like.

Fascinating reading...
http://www.nytimes.com/books/97/03/23/lifetimes/asi-v-fair.html
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Offline StinkyPete

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Re: Asimov's prediction of 2014 made 50 years ago
« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2013, 04:39:09 PM »
That is a good read indeed from a great thinker.   He has certainly hit the nail on the head with some of his predictions.
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Offline gaz

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Re: Asimov's prediction of 2014 made 50 years ago
« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2013, 06:56:44 PM »
thats a great idea  :beer
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Offline Biggles

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Re: Asimov's prediction of 2014 made 50 years ago
« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2013, 12:06:43 AM »
That is a good read indeed from a great thinker.   He has certainly hit the nail on the head with some of his predictions.

It confirms his status as a genius! 
He got it wrong regarding Fusion- that's still the holy grail of energy production.  And underwater hotels.
But nearly everything else has come to pass.  Microwave cooking, Maglev trains, driverless transport (already in some trains), Skype, satellite phones, solar energy, fibre optic data transmission, basic house-chore robots, robotic exploration of Mars, synthetic foods and computers in schools.  He underestimated the population by 500 million- we're actually reached 7 billion already.  That makes his awful vision of a "world Manhattan" even closer than he thought.
Glad I'm going to check out before that becomes a reality!
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Offline ST.George

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Re: Asimov's prediction of 2014 made 50 years ago
« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2013, 12:53:53 PM »
Isaac Asimov like Jules Verne whetted so many imaginations, they inspired real people to become real scientists and create the world they foresaw.


This gr8 article got so many things right that it shows that time travel is possible in those kind of minds.


Quote
The lucky few who can be involved in creative work of any sort will be the true elite of mankind, for they alone will do more than serve a machine.
Indeed, the most somber speculation I can make about A.D. 2014 is that in a society of enforced leisure, the most glorious single word in the vocabulary will have become work!
  (from the article)


Can't agree with the last remark tho cause, surely, there will be an enormous amount of work 2 b done keeping our poor overpopulated, polluted world from collapsing.


Sustainable permaculture could become the biggest industry on earth or we all will b drowned, poisoned, burnt, starved or shot for not sharing our resources. Luckily the ST has the economy and longevity 2 escape to the hills when we are invaded. And the panniers and top box will store enough sustenance until we meet other STriders who have found more supplies.


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Offline STill dreaming

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Re: Asimov's prediction of 2014 made 50 years ago
« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2013, 06:39:29 PM »
Probably get shot for saying this but i think the whole world needs a one child policy ,there's just too many people ,the future wars will be over food and water i fear.
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Offline Biggles

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Re: Asimov's prediction of 2014 made 50 years ago
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2013, 11:27:38 PM »
Probably get shot for saying this but i think the whole world needs a one child policy ,there's just too many people ,the future wars will be over food and water i fear.

No shooting from this computer.  But the one child policy only works in reducing population in a socially sustainable way if nature's random allocation of gender is allowed.  China's experiment has gone haywire because of the abortion of female foetuses in a society that valued sons above daughters.  They now have a huge preponderance of males seeking wives.

If I remember correctly, the figure of an average of 1.6 children per couple will keep the population at a level number at this stage of prolonging longevity.  Obviously once the standard longevity stabilises, the number is two per couple.

I'm talking "real world" here, ignoring "gay marriage".
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Offline STill dreaming

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Re: Asimov's prediction of 2014 made 50 years ago
« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2013, 07:32:50 AM »
The one child policy only applies to the people of the Han descendants,there are around 50 other minorities in china who this ruling does not apply  too.yes i agree the fact that people abort girls is totally wrong .still something needs to be done about the population .
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Offline Brock

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Re: Asimov's prediction of 2014 made 50 years ago
« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2013, 09:09:46 AM »
Quote
the figure of an average of 1.6 children per couple

Would suck to little .6..  o:) o:)
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